Forecast team predicts above-average hurricane season

Colorado State University’s hurricane forecasting team anticipates 13 named storms forming in the Atlantic basin between June 1 and Nov. 30. Seven of the 13 storms are predicted to become hurricanes. Of those seven, three are expected to develop into intense or major hurricanes.

This year’s prediction is based on a new statistical forecast technique that explains a considerable amount of hurricane variability in hindcasts issued from 1950-2007. Over this period, the three-predictor scheme correctly forecast above- or below-average seasons in 45 out of 58 years.

“Despite fairly inactive 2006 and 2007 hurricane seasons, we believe that the Atlantic basin is still in an active hurricane cycle,” said William Gray, forecast team leader. “This active cycle is expected to continue at least for another decade or two. After that, we’re likely to enter a quieter Atlantic major hurricane period like we experienced during the quarter-century periods of 1970-1994 and 1901-1925.”

The CSU hurricane forecast team also predicts a 60 percent chance that at least one major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. coastline in 2008. The long-term average probability is 52 percent.

For the East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula, the probability of an intense hurricane making landfall is 37 percent (the long-term average is 31 percent). For the Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle west to Brownsville, Texas, the probability is 36 percent (the long-term average is 30 percent).

The entire 28-page forecast report is available on the team’s Web site.

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For more: Tropical Meteorology Project, Colorado State University, (970) 491-8681; http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu.