Forecast is for an above-normal hurricane season

The Atlantic basin is expected to see an above-normal hurricane season this year, according to the seasonal outlook issued by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Climate Prediction Center. Across the entire Atlantic Basin for the 6-month season, which begins June 1, NOAA is predicting:
12 to 18 named storms (winds of 39 mph or higher), of which:
6 to 10 could become hurricanes (winds of 74 mph or higher), including:
3 to 6 major hurricanes (Category 3, 4 or 5; winds of 111 mph or higher)
Each of these ranges has a 70% likelihood, and indicate that activity will exceed the seasonal average of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes and 2 major hurricanes.
“The United States was fortunate last year. Winds steered most of the season’s tropical storms and all hurricanes away from our coastlines,” said Jane Lubchenco, under secretary of commerce for oceans and atmosphere and NOAA administrator.
Climate factors considered for this outlook are:
* The continuing high activity era. Since 1995, the tropical multi-decadal signal has brought ocean and atmospheric conditions conducive for development in sync, leading to more active Atlantic hurricane seasons.
* Warm Atlantic Ocean water. Sea surface temperatures where storms often develop and move across the Atlantic are up to 2°F warmer-than-average.
* La Niña, which continues to weaken in the equatorial Pacific Ocean, is expected to dissipate later this month or in June, but its impacts such as reduced wind shear are expected to continue into the hurricane season.