Seasonal drought outlook released

Latest Seasonal Assessment - During the previous two weeks, cool, wet weather overspread the northwestern U.S., while showers helped to improve drought conditions across parts of the Midwest. In the East, heavy rains associated with extratropical transitioning Hurricane Sandy erased drought across much of the mid-Atlantic and Northeast, but also caused flooding, wind damage and destructive storm surge.

In contrast, abnormal dryness persisted across the central and southern Plains and much of the Southeast, promoting drought persistence and modest expansion outside of some spotty relief in central Texas. During the upcoming three months, enhanced chances of abnormal dryness across the West keep prospects of significant improvement low, though further drought expansion into the Northwest is less likely due to the initial wet conditions and falling probabilities of abnormal dryness in the more recent model data. Some improvement is expected for central and southern California due primarily to the wet season climatology.

Some improvement is also expected across the northern tier of the U.S. due to a greater chance of enhanced wetness in November, with further drought reduction possible across parts of North Dakota and Minnesota before the winter freeze.

Drought persistence is likely across the remainder of the Plains and the Southwest due to dry seasonal climatology and a dry November outlook. In the East, further improvements are likely across the mid-Atlantic and eastern Corn Belt as the remnants of Sandy stall over the region with additional storminess in the week 2 period, while increasing short term dryness in the interior Southeast make significant improvements less likely despite a tilt towards wetness in the long range outlooks.

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