Supply chains & logistics

Just when growers were feeling relief from pandemic-era logistics and shipping woes, tariffs related to U.S. trade policy entered the picture and added new complications. Shipping and logistics continue to be enough of an issue that 30% responding to Greenhouse Management’s State of the Industry survey said they were “very concerned” about freight and shipping costs and logistics and the impact on their operations’ success. Another 25% said that shipping and logistics was one of the aspects of their business they’d most like to improve.

Given the concerns, it’s prudent to ask: What’s next?

To help clarify what growers should expect this spring, we spoke with Marcin Czaicki, supply chain professional, logistics procurement and optimization for Ball Horticultural Company.

Below, we outline likely challenges for 2026 and offer strategies growers can use to stay resilient.

Tariffs take center stage

“The primary impact is the challenge that we have with the tariffs the U.S. imposed on the rest of the world, where most of the unrooted cuttings are being grown,” Czaicki says.

Because these tariffs went into effect after the busiest part of the 2025 season, many growers have yet to feel the full operational and financial impact. That could change in 2026.

According to Czaicki, costs may fluctuate more frequently than usual as recent policy changes have been implemented outside traditional legislative processes. This can make forecasting challenging.

As Council of Supply Chain Management Professionals President and CEO Mark Baxa explained in early 2025, President Trump’s administrative orders invoking increased tariffs can go into effect as early as 60 to 90 days from the time that he proposes them. “They go through a review period, but that review period is very, very short, 45 days at the most,” Baxa told Nursery Management. “Those tariffs won’t be based on the time necessarily that they leave a foreign country. They’ll be based on when they hit the shores of the United States.”

Trucking

He explains that major trucking companies are shrinking their fleets through processes like early retirements, while many independent owner-operators — who entered the market during the high-demand COVID era — are now exiting due to a lack of work.

“These owner-operators are parking the trucks,” Czaicki says, “essentially ending the operation for the moment.”

This rebalancing could lead to inflated freight rates during spring shipping, particularly if demand rebounds at the same time supply tightens. Growers who benefited from bargain rates in 2024-25 should be prepared for increases.

“Since we’re already very low, if the trend reverses, the rates will start rising,” Czaicki explains. “We will probably not see rates go much lower compared to 2025.”

Fuel surcharges

Air freight in particular could become noticeably more expensive if jet fuel prices rebound.

Tips for navigating 2026

Despite the uncertainties, growers have options for strengthening their supply chain resilience. Czaicki shared several practices he sees among the most successful nursery and greenhouse operators.

Stay flexible

In tight or unpredictable supply conditions, flexibility pays off when it comes to rebooking orders or opting for different plant varieties.

“Some things that we observe from some of our more-savvy customers is just being more open and flexible to rebooking at different supply places,” Czaicki says. “If something all of a sudden doesn’t become available, or if a shipment needs to be replaced, those more-savvy customers are not completely tied to the particular genetic. If they’re working with pink petunia, they’re willing to just take any pink petunia other than maybe a specific genetic in order for them to keep the greenhouse busy and keep it operational.”

Growers willing to substitute varieties or pivot to alternate suppliers can avoid costly delays, especially when certain cuttings are unavailable due to tariffs or weather issues.

Czaicki recommends growers consider creating a substitute list for key crops well before shipping season.

Know your local delivery drivers

When weather or routing issues threaten plant quality, drivers often make the difference.

“For example,” Czaicki says, “we have several customers that are very friendly with FedEx and UPS drivers. They also know them by name. Sometimes you’re going to have their phone numbers. That type of a relationship with the delivery driver can be very beneficial when the weather not being conducive to shipping plants throughout the country.”

Prioritize trucking; source locally

Trucking programs can pick up parcel delivery slack when needed, though it might mean shipping during the specific weeks when your local trucking operations can deliver.

Sourcing locally can help alleviate shipping times, allowing for shorter transit distances that reduce risk, improve plant quality on arrival and cut freight costs.

“By locally, I mean connect their geographical region,” Czaicki explains. “Maybe not exceeding 400 or 500 miles of where the source of the plants is located.”

Looking ahead

While uncertainty is unavoidable, strategic planning and supplier communication can help growers navigate shifting costs and capacity constraints. By staying flexible, cultivating relationships and planning for potential freight increases, greenhouse businesses can approach the 2026 season with confidence, and keep benches full no matter what the logistics landscape brings.